Montreal Analyst

Time and again, the majority of investors in gold mining stocks lose money. Why? THE PRIMARY REASON IS that they consistently invest AFTER mining stocks have already had substantial price moves up; they rarely ever invest when the mining stocks are languishing at their long term bottoms. Such has been the case for years whether or not we are in a bull market in gold bullion. Yes, that is exactly what I mean, most investors lose consistently! The second reason for lack of investment success is the fact that most investors harbor a strong reluctance to take profits.

The markets are treating Canada as just another commodity play. This generic sentiment now popular among international investors could be dangerous when coupled with shortsighted economic leadership and an inadequate policy response. Canada and its currency could be vulnerable to another bout of weakness.

PRELUDE: You may recall what we have always said here and for ten years on the Canaminvestor, that there are always many opportunities for exceptional capital gains in the markets. And often, there are even more opportunities in brutal bear markets as people literally their dump shares "just to get me out of this stock(s)" right at or near a bottom. That near bottom could be at a price that is exceptionally undervalued and offering the opportunity for substantial capital gains.

The topic and tone of Canadian political debate can effect the investment environoment. Older readers may recall the constitutional turmoil and concerns about Quebec separatism that roiled the Canadian dollar market and adversely influenced equity and fixed income pricing for an extended period beginning in 1976 and extending into the 1990s. Now, after more than a dozen years of relative calm, these issues are coming back.

Regardant les stocks d'or que je suis habituellement, je t'envoie une mise à jour de mon avissur le comportement du prix au marché des titres de métaux précieux. Il est assez évident qu'actuellement, les investisseurs manifestent peu d'intérêt pour ces titres. Même les gros nos noms comme Barrick et GoldCorp semblent être tombés dans l'oubli. Il semble que tous n'aient d'yeux que pour le marché industriel qui, avouons-le, a connu une fabuleuse reprise depuis 2009, laquelle semble loin d'être terminée.

In recent days, the US Treasury market has been well bid and the reason put forward by talking heads is that threats to Chinese economic growth justify extending the time frame of accommodative American monetary policy and low interest rates. Oh, really?

DO NOT BE DISCOURAGED! TREMENDOUS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES EXIST EVEN IN THIS DAUNTING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. Even if my forecasts and comments seem disheartening, I have found that the greatest investment returns that I have ever had for clients came from investing in stocks that were literally being “thrown away” by discouraged investors. More opportunities are created in bear markets or brutal “sell offs” in individual stocks than are created during bull markets or in specific stocks making new highs.

The year 2014 is a long way off and it may seem odd to be worrying about future inflation. Forecasts for resurgent inflation have been numerous and prone to overstatement, so why bother? The answer is simple and twofold: 2014 is only two North American harvests away, and the why of the forecast could influence a diverse range of investments including common stock valuation levels, the prospects for several specific stock sectors and the real rate of return demanded by bond market investors.

It's a slow day in the small town of Pumphandle, West Virginia and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody is living on credit.
A tourist visiting the area drives through town, stops at the motel, and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs to pick one for the night.

As soon as he walks upstairs, the motel owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

(Stay with this.....and pay attention)

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." – Winston Churchill
It is election year in America. Everybody knows, aside from political gamesmanship and laying blame, nothing is going to happen in Washington until after the November election. In fact, given that the new Congress will not start work until January 2013, significant legislative initiatives and the implementation of bold policies are at least a year away. The question is whether the markets can wait that long.